Posttreatment Blood Pressure: A Key Predictor for Stroke Risk
Study Overview
Research shows that 63.0%-84.2% of stroke survivors have high blood pressure (hypertension). However, there is no specific tool to predict stroke risk for those with hypertension. We used data from 20,702 hypertensive patients in the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial (CSPPT) to create a 5-year stroke risk prediction model.
Key Findings
- Blood pressure was measured every 3 months, totaling 22 readings during the study.
- The model was validated and showed good predictive performance.
- A random forest model was used to identify the most important risk factors.
Top 10 Risk Factors for Stroke
- Average systolic blood pressure during treatment
- Age
- Average diastolic blood pressure during treatment
- Baseline systolic blood pressure
- History of diabetes
- Baseline total cholesterol level
- Baseline folate level
- Self-reported stress
- Smoking
- Folic acid supplementation
Model Performance
The predictive accuracy of the model was strong, with a C statistic of 0.74. It performed consistently across different genders and treatment groups.
Practical Tools
We created an online calculator to help doctors and patients assess stroke risk based on these factors.
Conclusion
This study highlights that long-term posttreatment blood pressure is the main predictor of stroke risk for hypertensive patients.
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